The Golden Decade: How CVC Correctly Anticipated Gold’s Rise since 2016

The financial consultancy firm CVC demonstrated remarkable prescience in correctly anticipating the meteoric ascent of Gold prices subsequent to the pronounced bear market low of December 2015. This strategic insight was anchored in a rigorous application of the Kuznets’ Swing utilising the Economic Wave Theory, which posited that the December 2015 market trough was the cyclical analogue to the earlier trough observed in August 1999.

In a foundational publication released concurrently with the 2015 low, CVC advanced the hypothesis that the subsequent price action would substantially mirror the trajectory observed in the post-August 1999 period. This prediction has been empirically validated with impressive accuracy: the correlation coefficient between the two periods, after meticulous normalisation to account for the principle of cyclical variation, stands at an extraordinary 0.95 (95%). This figure indicates a near-identical structural relationship between the two distinct market periods.

Utilising the past to forecast the future

Extending this analytical framework to the present, a straightforward application of the Kuznets’ periodicity (disregarding the nuances of cycle variation) allows for a compelling, albeit simplified, long-range projection. By this metric, the analogous year for 2025 is calculated to be 2008. This estimation provides a useful, rough approximation of the current market’s position within the broader Kuznets cycle, underscoring the enduring predictive power of the Economic Wave Theory.

Figure 1

Empirical Validation and Extended Projections: The Path to Mania

The successful identification of the Kuznets’ Swing analogue laid the foundation for an extended projection of Gold’s trajectory. As depicted in Figure 1, our model presented a clear and confident forecast for a renewed, multi-year appreciation of Gold commencing in mid-2016.

This projection was not merely an expectation of cyclical recovery, but a conviction in an impending shift toward a “mania” phase within the precious metals market—a phase that, by our proprietary metrics, has yet to be fully realised. This conviction was intrinsically linked to a corresponding thesis regarding the debasement of fiat currency.

Anticipating the Dollar’s Decline

Crucially, the analytical framework extended beyond the Gold market to the underlying currency dynamics. CVC simultaneously and correctly anticipated a subsequent, significant secular decline in the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation. This dual-pronged forecast—an ascent in Gold coupled with a decline in the USD—reflects an understanding of the inverse relationship between stores of value and reserve currencies under conditions of expansionary monetary policy. The accuracy of this parallel prediction is empirically underscored by the publicly disseminated tweet from CVC, confirming the firm’s foresight regarding the shifting global financial landscape.

In sum, the post-2015 Gold trajectory serves as compelling evidence of the predictive power of the Economic Wave Theory, providing a robust framework for anticipating not only asset class movements but also the macro-currency shifts that underpin them.

The Implied Reversal: Dollar Devaluation and the Ascent of Precious Metals

The well-established negative historical correlation between the US Dollar Index (USDX) and the broad basket of precious metals constitutes a cornerstone of our future market outlook. Leveraging the strength of our cyclical interpretations derived from the Kuznets’ Swing, a confident assumption can be made: the foreseeable future is poised to be characterised by the sustained appreciation of precious metals concurrent with the secular depreciation of the US Dollar. 📉💰

CVC’s initial conclusion—regarding this divergence—was rigorously established through the application of the Similar Cyclical Circumstance (SCC) principle inherent to the Kuznets’ swing. This framework provided a powerful and empirically validated lens for pattern recognition and forecasting.

Escalating Analytical Rigour: The Kondratieff Analogue

The predictive power of this thesis is now set for further refinement. Fortunately, the available long-term data series for both the US Dollar and precious metals markets facilitate the employment of the Kondratieff Wave cyclical position. The Kondratieff analogue is theoretically expected to yield a higher and more robust correlation with future market movements than the shorter Kuznets’ swing. This move represents a strategic escalation in analytical rigor, leveraging the larger cyclical patterns to affirm our existing forecast and potentially refine the magnitude and timing of the anticipated market shifts. The convergence of two distinct, long-wave cyclical positions strengthens the conviction behind the predicted structural reversal in these key asset classes.

Figure 2

The Echo of the 1970s: Forecasting the Post-2020 Environment via the Kondratieff Wave

Since 2016, CVC has consistently alerted clients to the looming structural environment post-2020, projecting conditions remarkably similar to the 1970s. This pivotal forecast is grounded in the Kondratieff Wave theory, which identifies the 1970s as the precise historical analogue.

Our long-wave analysis asserts that the global low of 2003 initiated a new Kondratieff cycle, with the corresponding trough in the historical analogue identified as 1949. Furthermore, the base Kuznets’ Swing within this current Kondratieff cycle reached its termination point at the COVID-19 pandemic trough in 2020.

The critical analogous trough to 2020 is, therefore, 1968. This inflection point catalyzed a significant 12-year advance in precious metals and an equally protracted 12-year decline in the US Dollar (USD), a trend that only reversed upon the final bursting of the precious metals bubble in 1980.

Cyclical Chronology and Forward Projections

Assuming that the Principle of Variation has not yet introduced significant period divergence, we can establish a precise forward-looking chronology for the current cycle based on the 1968 analogue.

Historical Event (Analogue Cycle: 1968 Start)	Historical Date	Duration (Years)	Projected Date (Current Cycle: 2020 Start)	Event Significance
Juglar Cycle High (Precious Metals)	1974-1975	approx 7.0	2026-2027	Projected Juglar Cycle High
Juglar Cycle Low (Corrective Phase)	Late 1976	approx 8.5	2028-2029	Projected Juglar Cycle Low
Analogous Price Peak (Precious Metals/Kondratieff High)	1980	approx 12.0	2032	Projected Kuznets Wave High

With five years having elapsed since the current Kuznets’ Swing began in 2020, our current phase is cyclically analogous to 1973 (1968 + 5 years). This suggests that after a probable, near-term corrective leg lower (the subject of forthcoming analysis), precious metals are poised to resume their ascent, targeting new highs into the anticipated Juglar wave peak in 2027.

The Dollar’s Parallel Path

Given the global and interwoven nature of these economic cycles, this analysis implies a similar phase for the US Dollar Index (USDX). We anticipate USD action structurally mirroring the period from 1973 to 1980. This historical analogue provides a sobering expectation for the USD’s performance, reinforcing the central thesis of sustained Dollar decline until the final cycle peak around 2032. The convergence of the Kuznets’ and Kondratieff frameworks thus provides a highly detailed, decade-long roadmap for the inverse performance of precious metals and the global reserve currency.

Figure 3

The Phoenix Effect: Projecting the Dollar’s Post-Mania Resurgence

The historical trajectory of the US Dollar Index (USDX) provides a crucial context for our long-term projections. Following the definitive collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the USD entered an established secular bear market that culminated in the orthodox end of its major decline in 1980.

However, the analysis cannot conclude with this. Historically, the USD experienced a sharp, vigorous rebound to new highs between 1980 and 1985.

The Cyclical Endgame: From Debasement to Reaffirmation

From the perspective of our Kondratieff Wave analogue, CVC is projecting a reoccurrence of this counter-trend USD resurgence in the coming decade. The long-wave analysis suggests that the current cycle’s precious metals mania will climax around 2032 (the analogue to 1980), leading to the subsequent USD rebound projected from 2032 to 2037 (the analogue to 1980–1985).

This forecast directly addresses a current macro-economic conundrum: the widespread, and seemingly rational, expectation of a significant deterioration in faith in the US Dollar by foreign governments and central banks. While this sentiment is entirely justified—and is indeed a primary catalyst behind the current strength in the Gold market—history, as interpreted through the Kondratieff analogue, offers a critical nuance.

Once the precious metals bubble finally bursts, and the cyclical mania concludes, the ensuing systemic shock and flight to safety is predicted to trigger a decisive reversal. Despite contemporary anxieties regarding de-dollarisation, the historical pattern suggests that global capital will ultimately flock back into the US Dollar as the world’s most liquid and available safe-haven asset, reaffirming its role in the immediate post-mania environment. This projected ‘Phoenix Effect’ in the USD provides the final, dramatic act in the current long-wave cycle.

Figure 4

Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook: The Unfolding Golden Zenith

The rally witnessed in the Gold market has been, by any measure, truly remarkable, validating the long-wave cyclical analysis previously discussed and mentioned to clients almost a decade ago. However, based on the Kondratieff Wave projections—which anticipate the ultimate mania phase around 2032—we assert with confidence that the cyclical zenith has yet to be reached. The most dynamic and profitable phase of this appreciation is still to come! 🚀

Upcoming Video: A Short-Term Cyclical Refinement

While the structural long-term trend remains firmly established, short-term volatility necessitates tactical analysis. Our forthcoming video presentation will provide a detailed, short-term perspective on the Gold market, alongside a cyclical examination of other popular financial instruments. This analysis will focus on identifying the immediate corrective leg lower and the subsequent resumption of the uptrend into the projected 2027 Juglar peak.

Stay tuned for this crucial update, which will bridge our long-wave strategic outlook with the necessary short-term tactical entry and exit points. 📺📈

Ahmed Farghaly

Founder & CEO of Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy