Beyond the Headlines: Navigating US Markets with Long-Term & Short-Term Cycles

S&P 500 Index Analysis

This analysis by CVC examines the S&P 500 stock index based on the principle of Commonality, and other Hurst cycles principles, presenting both immediate and extended-term forecasts.

Methodology and Forecast

Uncharacteristically, this projection employs the relatively short-term Juglar economic wave cycle to generate an end-of-year forecast.

Based on historical analogues derived from this cycle, the outlook precludes catastrophic market crashes but suggests an 18-month cyclical correction.

Conclusion and Investment Strategy

The current market configuration is interpreted as a topping pattern, indicating a strong sell signal. For investors electing to maintain long positions, the strategic acquisition of put options is recommended to serve as portfolio insurance throughout the anticipated correction phase.

Ahmed

Founder & CEO of Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy