Hurst Cycles Update (S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest rates, Bitcoin)

Thank you for viewing this detailed summary of the Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy (CVC) global market outlook. This analysis, based on economic cycles, provides clear, counter-consensus forecasts for major asset classes.

Here is the structured summary of the forecasts for an easier review:

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🌎 Global Market Outlook: Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy (CVC)

The CVC analysis is grounded in the timing of major economic cycles, with key troughs projected for late January/early February of the following year.

📈 Equities (S&P 500)

Metric	Current Cycle Positioning	Forecast & Key Timing
80-Day Cycle	In the final 80-day cycle before the major 18-month cycle trough.	High projected for the first half of December.
18-Month Cycle	Expected to trough.	Significant sell-off forecast into late January/early February (running contrary to typical year-end seasonality).
54-Month Cycle	Trough was identified in August 2024 (despite a false break).	Market is now expected to be advancing within this longer-term cycle.

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💵 Currencies (US Dollar)

Cycle Positioning	Forecast & Impact on Equities
40-Week Cycle Trough	Trough occurred in mid-September.
Forward Forecast	CVC expects a new low for the US Dollar. This is anticipated to be supportive of an advance in equities during the second and third quarters of the following year.

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🥇 Gold

Timeframe	Outlook	Rationale/Forecast
Short-Term	Bearish/Consolidation	Likely pressured by the global 18-month cycle correction. Potential sell-off or sideways consolidation expected before the next major move.
Long-Term	Significantly Bullish	Anticipating a major, potentially parabolic rise in the next 18-month cycle, expected to begin around March of the following year.

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🌾 Commodities (CRB Index)

Cycle Positioning	Forecast
54-Month Cycle Trough	Identified in September 2024, marking the start of the second quarter of a longer 18-year cycle.
Forward Forecast	Bullish outlook. CRB Index is projected to reach approximately 420 before the peak of the current 54-month cycle.

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🏦 Interest Rates (10-Year Yield)

Cycle Positioning	Forecast
54-Month Cycle	Believed to be at the beginning of a new 54-month cycle.
Forward Forecast	Expected to rise. Based on historical amplitude, the 10-Year Yield is projected to reach approximately 6.6% in the current Juglar economic cycle.

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₿ Bitcoin

Current Cycle Positioning	Forecast & Key Timing
80-Day Cycle	In the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month cycle trough (similar to equities).
Forward Forecast	CVC expects a dramatic “capitulation” or selling climax (significant final sell-off) leading into the expected 18-month trough in late January/early February.

Warm regards,

Ahmed Farghaly

Founder & CEO of Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy